This guide will explain the Each Way (EW) No Lay betting method. Whilst this method can be profitable, it is important to stress that this is a high-risk technique, that has the potential to see long periods of losing money, and should only be attempted by advanced matched bettors with a sufficient bankroll and good risk management.
- What Is An EW Bet?
- What Is EW No Lay And Why Does It Work?
- Picking Horses To Bet On
- Customised Settings Filter
- An Example
- How Many Bets Can We Place A Day?
- How Much Should I Bet?
- How Long Can The Downswing Last?
- Potential Expected Hourly Earnings
- Using Clean Accounts
- What Bookies Shall I Use?
- Tracking Results
- Is There A Better Way?
What Is An EW Bet?
An EW bet is where your bet splits into two different bets; one bet on the horse to win the race, and one bet on it to place. To place effectively means to be a runner up in the race. Most races pay 2-4 places, so if your horse finishes in any of these positions, the place bet would win. If the horse wins the race, then both the win and place bets would win. An each way bet will always have an equal stake placed on the win and place bets, so if you bet £5 each way, this would mean betting a total of £10, £5 on the horse to win, and £5 on it to place.
When placing a bet with a bookie, you will just see one set of odds, being the odds for the horse to win the race.
However there will also be place terms, which is the number of places the bookie is paying (usually 2-4) and there will be a fraction associated with it (usually ¼ or ⅕). If the horse finishes in a place, the bookie will pay out the place bet at the set fraction of the win odds.
If a horse has win odds of 8.0 and the extra place terms are ¼ then we can calculate the place odds as follows:
Subtract 1 from the win odds: 8.0 - 1 = 7.0
Multiply this number by the place fraction: 7 x 1/4 = 1.75
Add one: 1.75 + 1 = 2.75
So if we were to place a £5 each way bet, and the horse finished in a place, the payout would be £5 x 2.75 = £13.75
What Is EW No Lay And Why Does It Work?
EW No Lay is where you place each way bets on horses, and do not place any lay bets. This is very different to what we are used to as matched bettors, and it means that if we have a run of losing bets, we could lose a large amount of money. However, by applying the method discussed below, we do expect to make a profit in the long run.
At the bookmaker, the place odds are directly linked to the win odds. This suggests that the chance of a horse finishing in a place are always an exact fraction of the chance of that horse winning the race, which is not the case. For example, take a race with 10 runners, and the bookmaker is paying 3 places. There is a very strong favourite, with win odds of 1.4. This is going to mean that all other horses have very high win odds, which also increases their place odds at the bookies. However two horses have to finish in 2nd and 3rd, and the chance of a horse finishing in one of these places is likely to be better than the price at the bookies suggests, creating an opportunity for us to profit.
Picking Horses To Bet On
Not all each way bets have value, in fact the vast majority do not, and we would be losing money by betting on them. We therefore need to understand how to choose which horses we should be betting on.
Team Profit highly recommends using Oddsmonkey’s Eachway Matcher, a really useful tool to find each way bets.
You can also navigate to it on oddsmonkey by going to Tools then Matchers, and choosing Eachway Matcher.
You will then be presented with a page that looks like this:
Whilst this may initially look daunting, we can break it down by column:
Event Time: when the race is happening
Details: the time and location of the race
Bet: the horse that the bet would be on
Bookmaker: which bookmaker the bet would be placed with
Odds: the current odds on the horse at the bookmaker
Win Exchange: which exchange the win odds are compared to
Place Exchange: which exchange the place odds are compared to
Runners: the number of horses in the race
Rating (%): this is the expected profit of the bet. A rating of 105% would mean we would expect to make £5 profit on a £100 bet.
For EW no lay, we can ignore the SNR (%), Arb Rating (%) and Max Profit (£) columns, and our main focus will be on the Rating (%) column because this shows the expected value of our bet.
Customised Settings Filter
Now we need to make some adjustments to the settings to make the tool as effective as possible. If we select filter on the matcher, this should bring up a menu with lots of different options. One thing you may have noticed is that the eachway matcher is showing bets with a wide variety of bookmakers. The first thing to do is to select Bookmakers, then unclick ‘select all’, and then just tick the bookmakers that we want to use to get our bets on.
Next, we suggest making sure that the options at the bottom of this menu are set to the following:
Now click save, and this way, these settings will be applied whenever you open the Eachway Matcher.
Now, we should see a list of horses at our selected bookmakers for us to consider. In theory we should be taking matches with a Rating % of greater than 100%, because this suggests that the bet would be profitable in the long run.
You might find that quite often there are no matches that have a rating % exceeding our criteria. This just means that we should do nothing, because there are no profitable matches at that time. In order to be successful at EW no lay, we should be patient, always stick to our criteria, and try to check the matcher regularly. To make this easier, the matcher has an auto refresh filter. Just select the drop-down arrow next to the Refresh button on the matcher, and select ‘Auto-Refresh 1 minute’.
From the above (set to show Smarkets with 0% commission), we can see that there is just one match with a Rating % of greater than 100%, on the horse Reeves, in the 13:50 at Sandown, with the bookmaker bet365, so we would place our each way back bet on this horse at Bet365. Bookmakers can be very quick to change their odds. If the odds at the bookmaker are lower than is shown in the matcher then we do not place this bet, as there is likely to no longer be value in the match. All other matches have a rating % of below 100% so we would disregard these as being non-profitable.
How Many Bets Can We Place A Day?
Depending on the amount of racing on that day, and how closely we can follow the eachway matcher, we might expect to get 20-40 bets on in a day.
How Much Should I Bet?
Each way no lay betting is effectively gambling, with a small edge. There is a risk of making a large loss, so EW no lay should only be attempted with money that you could afford to lose. We suggest setting aside an amount that you could afford to lose that will be your dedicated EW no lay bankroll, and then determining how much you should bet based upon this. We suggest then placing no more than 0.5%-1% of your bankroll on a single bet. For example, if you started with a bankroll of £500, you would do bets of £2.50-£5 (£1.25-£2.50 each way stakes).
How Long Can The Downswing Last?
Team Profit has looked at the results of some individuals who have tried the each way no lay method, and whilst the long term trend appears to be gradually rising profits, there have been some very significant downswings and it is certainly not constant. Some have reported downswings of as much as £1000, and losing as much as 100x their bet size in a downswing.
Potential Expected Hourly Earnings
Given our time is valuable, and there are other profitable matched betting techniques, we must consider whether this method achieves an average hourly rate that we are happy with. For example, let’s assume it might take around 3 minutes from receiving an alert about a match, to placing our bet and then tracking it in our spreadsheet. We average around 105% rated bets, and we are doing £5 stakes (£2.50EW) - requiring around £1000 bankroll. The 5% value we extract from our £5 bet suggests an expected value of about 25p, for 3 minutes of our time, giving an hourly rate of about £5. Obviously these figures are speculation, but it shows that this isn't a way to get rich quick, but potentially a way to gradually make some profit over the long run.
Using Clean Accounts
EW no lay can be a good way to extract some value out of your gubbed accounts. There is some uncertainty as to whether each way betting may increase your chances of being gubbed by bookies. To be safe, we suggest avoiding using any non-gubbed accounts that have a lot of value, such as Bet365 and William Hill, instead sticking to gubbed accounts and accounts that you would not mind getting gubbed.
What Bookies Shall I Use?
Each way betting can be done with lots of bookies and using more accounts will give you more chances to find good opportunities. However, when getting started with EW no lay, we suggest choosing around 5 bookies to use, and then considering gradually increasing it as you get more experienced with the method.
It is important to keep track of all the bets that you place, and the results. We suggest setting up a spreadsheet to do this. As an example, Team Profit has set up a basic google sheet to do this, which can be found here. If you would like to use this, open the link, then select file in the toolbar, then make a copy, then Google Sheets will create your own copy that you can edit.
With this method the vast majority of your bets will lose. This will create periods of losses, and periods where you hit some winners and profit. Over the long run you should profit, but it is important to remember that the value edge that we have by doing the EW no lay method will become clearer over a long period of time, after we have placed hundreds of bets.
Is There A Better Way?
Team Profit believes a better method may be betting on Extra Places. This can be nicely profitable, and because we lay our bets, any downswings should be much less dramatic. Please see our guide on Extra Places here
Alternatively, we could use the Extra Place matcher to find bets with over 100% rating, and decide to lay them against the exchange for a guaranteed profit. This might require larger stakes, and requires having money in an exchange, but it could be a good way to guarantee some extra profit each day, without any risk of losing money from a big downswing.
If we find a match over 100% rating on the Eachway matcher, we can click on Open Calculator, to be presented with a screen like the one above. We can enter our chosen stake size, in the above example £40, on Temple Man at odds of 11. The calculator then tells us that we need to lay £17.60 on the win market at odds of 12.5, and £24.31 on the place market at odds of 2.88. By doing this, we have guaranteed £1.90 profit, as shown by the green box in the top right corner of the calculator.
There are a number of users of the EW no lay method that have achieved good profits over the long term, however they have also reported very significant downswings at times. This method is ultimately gambling, with a small mathematical edge, so we have to be in a position to follow this method over a very large number of bets, in order to ride out the variance that we will experience.
We do not suggest anyone without a significant amount of matched betting experience attempts this method, but if you do decide to try it, you should have a set amount of money that you commit to trying it, an amount that you could afford to lose all of. Limit your bet sizing to a maximum of 1% of your bankroll, and do not be tempted to break this rule. If you have not yet completed all of the sign up offers, or still have a majority of your accounts not gubbed, there are almost certainly better ways to make money than this method, and we would recommend trying the extra places method before considering EW no lay.