Each Way No Lay Betting Guide
This guide will explain the Each Way (EW) No Lay betting method. Whilst this method can be profitable, it is important to stress that this is a high-risk technique, that has the potential to see long periods of losing money, and should only be attempted by advanced matched bettors with a sufficient bankroll and good risk management.
- What Is An EW Bet?
- What Is EW No Lay And Why Does It Work?
- Picking Horses To Bet On
- How Many Bets Can We Place A Day?
- How Much Should I Bet?
- How Long Can The Downswing Last?
- Potential Expected Hourly Earnings
- Using Clean Accounts
- What Bookies Shall I Use?
- Tracking Results
- Is There A Better Way?
What Is An EW Bet?
An EW bet is where your bet splits into two different bets; one bet on the horse to win the race, and one bet on it to place. To place effectively means to be a runner up in the race. Most races pay 2-4 places, so if your horse finishes in any of these positions, the place bet would win. If the horse wins the race, then both the win and place bets would win. An each way bet will always have an equal stake placed on the win and place bets, so if you bet £5 each way, this would mean betting a total of £10, £5 on the horse to win, and £5 on it to place.
When placing a bet with a bookie, you will just see one set of odds, being the odds for the horse to win the race.
However there will also be place terms, which is the number of places the bookie is paying (usually 2-4) and there will be a fraction associated with it (usually ¼ or ⅕). If the horse finishes in a place, the bookie will pay out the place bet at the set fraction of the win odds.
If a horse has win odds of 8.0 and the extra place terms are ¼ then we can calculate the place odds as follows:
Subtract 1 from the win odds: 8.0 - 1 = 7.0
Multiply this number by the place fraction: 7 x 1/4 = 1.75
Add one: 1.75 + 1 = 2.75
So if we were to place a £5 each way bet, and the horse finished in a place, the payout would be £5 x 2.75 = £13.75
What Is EW No Lay And Why Does It Work?
EW No Lay is where you place each way bets on horses, and do not place any lay bets. This is very different to what we are used to as matched bettors, and it means that if we have a run of losing bets, we could lose a large amount of money. However, by applying the method discussed below, we do expect to make a profit in the long run.
At the bookmaker, the place odds are directly linked to the win odds. This suggests that the chance of a horse finishing in a place are always an exact fraction of the chance of that horse winning the race, which is not the case. For example, take a race with 10 runners, and the bookmaker is paying 3 places. There is a very strong favourite, with win odds of 1.4. This is going to mean that all other horses have very high win odds, which also increases their place odds at the bookies. However two horses have to finish in 2nd and 3rd, and the chance of a horse finishing in one of these places is likely to be better than the price at the bookies suggests, creating an opportunity for us to profit.
Picking Horses To Bet On
Not all each way bets have value, in fact the vast majority do not, and we would be losing money by betting on them. We therefore need to understand how to choose which horses we should be betting on. To do this, some sort of matcher may be best, however you can manually search too by looking for either back odds arbs, or arbs within the place market.
How Many Bets Can We Place A Day?
Depending on the amount of racing on that day, we might expect to get 20-40 bets on in a day.
How Much Should I Bet?
Each way no lay betting is effectively gambling, with a small edge. There is a risk of making a large loss, so EW no lay should only be attempted with money that you could afford to lose. We suggest setting aside an amount that you could afford to lose that will be your dedicated EW no lay bankroll, and then determining how much you should bet based upon this. We suggest then placing no more than 0.5%-1% of your bankroll on a single bet. For example, if you started with a bankroll of £500, you would do bets of £2.50-£5 (£1.25-£2.50 each way stakes).
How Long Can The Downswing Last?
Team Profit has looked at the results of some individuals who have tried the each way no lay method, and whilst the long term trend appears to be gradually rising profits, there have been some very significant downswings and it is certainly not constant. Some have reported downswings of as much as £1000, and losing as much as 100x their bet size in a downswing.
Potential Expected Hourly Earnings
Given our time is valuable, and there are other profitable matched betting techniques, we must consider whether this method achieves an average hourly rate that we are happy with. For example, let’s assume it might take around 3 minutes from receiving an alert about a match, to placing our bet and then tracking it in our spreadsheet. We average around 105% rated bets, and we are doing £5 stakes (£2.50EW) - requiring around £1000 bankroll. The 5% value we extract from our £5 bet suggests an expected value of about 25p, for 3 minutes of our time, giving an hourly rate of about £5. Obviously these figures are speculation, but it shows that this isn't a way to get rich quick, but potentially a way to gradually make some profit over the long run.
Using Clean Accounts
EW no lay can be a good way to extract some value out of your gubbed accounts. There is some uncertainty as to whether each way betting may increase your chances of being gubbed by bookies. To be safe, we suggest avoiding using any non-gubbed accounts that have a lot of value, such as Bet365 and William Hill, instead sticking to gubbed accounts and accounts that you would not mind getting gubbed.
What Bookies Shall I Use?
Each way betting can be done with lots of bookies and using more accounts will give you more chances to find good opportunities. However, when getting started with EW no lay, we suggest choosing around 5 bookies to use, and then considering gradually increasing it as you get more experienced with the method.
It is important to keep track of all the bets that you place, and the results. We suggest setting up a spreadsheet to do this. As an example, Team Profit has set up a basic google sheet to do this, which can be found here. If you would like to use this, open the link, then select file in the toolbar, then make a copy, then Google Sheets will create your own copy that you can edit.
With this method the vast majority of your bets will lose. This will create periods of losses, and periods where you hit some winners and profit. Over the long run you should profit, but it is important to remember that the value edge that we have by doing the EW no lay method will become clearer over a long period of time, after we have placed hundreds of bets.
Is There A Better Way?
Team Profit believes a better method may be betting on Extra Places. This can be nicely profitable, and because we lay our bets, any downswings should be much less dramatic. Please see our guide on Extra Places here
There are a number of users of the EW no lay method that have achieved good profits over the long term, however they have also reported very significant downswings at times. This method is ultimately gambling, with a small mathematical edge, so we have to be in a position to follow this method over a very large number of bets, in order to ride out the variance that we will experience.
We do not suggest anyone without a significant amount of matched betting experience attempts this method, but if you do decide to try it, you should have a set amount of money that you commit to trying it, an amount that you could afford to lose all of. Limit your bet sizing to a maximum of 1% of your bankroll, and do not be tempted to break this rule. If you have not yet completed all of the sign up offers, or still have a majority of your accounts not gubbed, there are almost certainly better ways to make money than this method, and we would recommend trying the extra places method before considering EW no lay.