Bet365 and Paddy Power both run this excellent football refund offer.
It is the most popular football refund offer for matched betters because, once you have learnt how to complete offer using this guide, it is quick and easy to do!
Simply back and lay teams with very close odds between the bookmaker and the exchange. Then sit back and hope that the team you back goes 2 goals up (e.g. 2-0, 3-1)!
If your team goes 2 goals up, you can either:
There is no maximum stake, usually I will go for between £50 to £100, you could put on a lower stake and still make a profit!
Your average profit from this offer is usually £2 to £3 based on a stake of £50 to £100 and choosing 97%+ rating teams. For 5 minutes work, this is well worth doing!
Please note you can go many games without your chosen teams going 2 goals up, so this is not entirely risk free, but is still low risk given it is just small trigger bet losses for each team you back and lay.
2Up Key Terms
Am I Eligible?
You should receive a message in your Bet365 inbox to say you are included in the 2Up offer. If you are gubbed, you are not eligible unfortunately.
You are eligible for this offer, including if you are gubbed hurray!
Step 1) Choosing The Teams
There are 3 key criteria to choosing the teams:
Eligible league or cup (see key terms above)
Close odds (97%+ rating)
Avoid low odds (aim for 1.7 back odds or higher)
Close odds (97%+) is essential for this offer because the likelihood of your team going 2 goals up is low. This means you will incur numerous trigger bet losses until you can profit from this offer by your team going 2 goals up. Therefore, in order to make this offer profitable in the long term, keeping the trigger bet losses low is key!
Mid to high odds (1.7 and above) is also essential for this offer because if you choose a strong favourite with low odds (<1.7), then when they go 2 goals up, the likelihood of the underdogs coming back to draw or win is extremely low.
This means there is no value when you go to cash out your lay bet (or if you hope the underdogs come back to draw or win, you'll be waiting a very long time!)
Choosing Teams Tip: Use The OddsMatcher 2Up Filter
OddsMonkey launched a brilliant 2up filter in the OddsMatcher.
Below is a video review of how to use this awesome filter:
Step 2) Placing The Bets
Nice and easy, just place your back bet on Bet365 or Paddy Power and lay as normal in the calculator.
You will make a small trigger bet loss of up to 3% of your stake (i.e. up to £3 loss from £100 staked). It is now just a case of waiting and see if your team goes 2 goals up!
Step 3) Your Team Has Gone 2 Goals Up!
If your team has gone 2 goals up, brilliant!
As mentioned at the top of this guide you now have two options, let's go through each option:
Once your team has gone 2 goals up, you have won the bookmaker bet!
However, you don't need to pay out the full liability of your lay bet because there is a still a slim chance your team won't hold their 2 goal lead. Both Betfair and Smarkets give you the option to 'cash out' your lay bet.
In effect, this means that if there is an 10% chance your team won't hold their 2 goal lead, then you can immediately cash out and lose only 90% of the liability.
Let's help to show this using an example:
Check out the Betfair Cash Out and Smarkets Trade Out guide if you are new to using this feature.
Alternatively, rather than using the 'cash out' or 'trade out' you can manually calculate the back stake to place on the exchange to manually cash out your lay bet. You can do this by using the OddsMonkey Early Payout Calculator.
The Early Payout Calculator is very helpful when you have multiple lay bets on the same game, but only one relates to your 2Up offer. You can therefore just cash out your lay bet relating to the 2Up offer.
If you aren't online when the game is running or you're simply looking to save time, you can just hope that once your team has gone 2 goals up, they surrender their lead and end up drawing or losing the game. This means you win both your Bet365/Paddy bet and your exchange lay stake.
Whilst this is unlikely to happen, over the longer term it has the same expected profit as Option 1), it just has bigger swings as you aren't cashing in small profits each time your team goes 2 goals up.
Which Option Should You Use?
You can choose either approach based on your time available! If it helps, the approach I take is to always back and lay teams when I receive the OddsMonkey alert. Then when the games are being played:
If I am online then I'll check every so often to see if the team are 2 goals up. If so, great I'll cash out for a small profit.
If I am offline then I'll just hope when I check the results that I was lucky and my team when 2 goals up only to then surrender their lead and the game ends in a draw or lose for them!
Extra Tip - Choose Higher Odds
It is best to back teams with higher odds, quite often I'll see teams with odds between 3.0 to 7.0 in my OddsMonkey alert which is ideal.
The reason higher odds is better, is because once your team goes 2 goals up, their exchange odds will still be reasonably high (1.2 to 1.5) so you can cashout and lose less liability in the exchange (than if the odds were 1.01 to 1.2). This is because your team are the underdog in the game and so the favourite still has a reasonable chance to score 2 goals to get it back to a draw.
Below is an example of the potential cash out profit once your team goes 2 goals up, based on a £100 stake:
Scroll right to see the profit column.
|Pre-Match Odds||Odds Once 2 Goals Up||Lock In Profit|
Please note these odds once 2 goals up are just approximate odds. The actual odds will depend a lot how early your team goes 2 goals up.
For example, if your team goes 2 goals up in the 20th minute, the odds will be reasonable (1.1 to 1.5), if your team goes 2 goals up in the 80th minute, the odds will be 1.01 so there is almost no profit in the cashout.
For this reason, I'll usually only for 1.7 to 2.0 back odds with a 98% rating, whilst I'll be happy to go for 97%+ when the odds are greater than 2.0.
Also for reference, the exchange odds to look for when cashing out are the back odds, this is because to cash out the lay bet the exchange places an opposite back bet. For details on this, please see the Betfair Cash Out & Smarkets Trade Out guide.
I hope you have found this 2Up guide helpful and if you have any questions please do see below for how to reach out thanks!
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