The US Open starts this Thursday at 1pm UK time! The US Open lasts for 4 days, concluding on Sunday.
There is a very simple Bet £20 Get 4 x £5 free bets offer being run by Ladbrokes. Simply back and lay as normal for £20 one of the lowest odds golfers (to minimise liability) and enjoy a £5 free bet every day of the tournament! This offer is worth £12 profit risk free. [15th June 09:30 - This offer has now been removed by Ladbrokes sadly]
For additional profit, many bookmakers are running extra place offers, including SkyBet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sports and Coral all paying out the top 8 places!
Note these bets need to be placed before Thursday 1pm.
This is a profitable opportunity for matched betting, though I recommend this only for experienced matched betters given it does require quite a large liability at the same time as the Grand National.
Golf US Open: Each Way Bets Explained
With an 'each way' bet, you are backing a golfer twice, once to win and once to come in the top 5 places.
For example, if I place a £10 each way bet (£20 total stake) on Dustin Johnson to win the US Open, I am placing two bets:
£10 bet on Dustin Johnson to win (odds 8.0)
£10 bet on Dustin Johnson to come top 5 (odds 2.4)
I can then lay off Dustin Johnson on either Betfair or Smarkets for small trigger bet loss, due to the lay odds being higher than the bookmaker back odds.
Golf US Open: Special Offers Explained
As a special US Open offer, some bookmakers will pay out if the golfer finishes in the top 8!
This means if our chosen golfer(s) finish 6th, 7th or 8th, we win both our each way bookmaker bet (because the golfer has finished in the top 8) and each way lay bet (because the golfer has finished in the top 5) for a very tidy profit!
This is not risk free as our golfer(s) may not finish 6th, 7th or 8th and so will end out with our small trigger bet loss.
Step 1) How To Choose The Golfer(s)
OddsMonkey just a couple of days ago announced they have added golf to the Each Way Matcher!
Firstly open up the OddsMonkey Community Thread for the US Open extra place offers - click here.
Secondly open up the OddsMonkey Each Way Matcher - click here.
On the Each Way Matcher as shown below:
- Click 'Filter' then 'Sports' then select 'Golf'.
- I would recommend selecting max back odds as 67 to prevent very high odds golfers showing
- Exchanges - You may wish to use Smarkets only given Betfair Sports are running an extra place offer
This will then show you a list of all golfers for all the bookmakers running extra place offers. Simply click the column heading 'Rating' to sort by highest rating:
The 95.27% rating tells you that if you place a £50 EW bet on Henrik Stenson to win on TitanBet (£25 to win and £25 to come top 6, as TitanBet pay top 6) then you will lose a 4.73% which is £2.36 trigger bet loss.
What Is A Profitable Rating?
I would choose any golfer that has odds of 67.0 or lower with a 90%+ rating. You'll see the maths behind this below!
Step 2) How To Place Your Lay Bets
Simply click 'Open Calculator' and this will show you the amount to lay on Smarkets on the 'to win' and 'to place' markets.
Firstly enter the back stake you intend to place, based on how much liability you have in your account and then click 'Recalculate'.
Here is the calculator for a £50 EW bet:
This tells you to:
- Lay £23.68 on Stenson to win (£876 liability)
- Lay £24.92 on Stenson to finish in the top 5 (£219 liability)
Just use the direct link to Smarkets in the Calculator to go straight to the market.
How Much Could You Win If Your Golfer Finishes 6th/7th/8th?
So we know we will make a small £2.36 trigger bet loss from our £50 bet on Stenson, but is it taking this loss based on the potential profit?
Your potential profit if Stenson finishes 6th is:
- Win your £24.42 lay stake on Smarkets (£24.92 less the 2% commission)
- Win your £218.75 from your £25 'to place' bet on TitanBet
You can also calculate this by entering the back odds, lay odds, back stake and place payout into the Extra Place Calculator.
The reason we win £218.75 is because TitanBet pay out at 1/4 of the odds of the 'to win' odds. So 36.0 is 35/1 in fractional odds, so dividing this by 4 gives us 8.5. Our profit is therefore £25 x 8.5.
So our effective odds are a £2.36 trigger bet loss to win £243.17! This is effective odds of 103.0 to come 6th which makes it a great bet given Stenson is 36.0 to win.
FAQ: Why 90% Rating Or Higher?
I would go for 90% or higher so long as the odds are up to 50.0 (if the odds are between 50.0 to 67.0 then 93% or higher).
Using the Stenson example above, if the rating was 90%, then the trigger bet loss would be £5 to win £243. This is effective odds of 49.0, which is better than the 36.0 to win. Given a good golfer is just as likely to come 6th as to come 5th, this represents value for us!
Note your payout would be a bit less if the place odds were 1/5 rather than 1/4 in which case you may want to go for a higher rating around 92%+.
FAQ: Do I Need A Crazy Amount Of Liability For This?
Golfers have high odds, however for the 'to win' market only 1 golfer can win. Therefore, the exchange will only take the largest liability you have, less the lay stakes you would win on the other golfers.
For example, if you bet on 3 golfers each with a £100 lay stake and £1000 liability, you would only need £800 liability in my account, because the worst case is 1 golfer wins for £1000 liability, but you would win 2 x £100 lay stakes.
Note this is not the case with the 'to place' liabilities as all 3 golfers could place and so you do need the combined liability.
FAQ: How Are The EW Place Odds Calculated?
You don't have to know this in order to place your bookmaker bet and lay bet, but it's still helpful to know!
The bookmaker gives either 1/4 or 1/5 of the fractional odds for the golfer to win, as the odds for the each way place odds (Top 7 or Top 8).
Taking the example above, Dustin Johnson has 8.0 decimal odds (which is 7/1 fractional odds as you subtract 1 to get fractional odds) on Stan James that gives 1/5 odds. Therefore:
(7 / 5) = 1.4
We then add back the 1 to return to decimal odds, so 1.4 + 1 = 2.4.
Note SkyBet are the only bookmaker giving 1/4 odds whereas every other bookmaker that is paying Top 7 or Top 8 are giving 1/5 odds.
FAQ: Which Bookmakers Are Giving Each Way Odds?
You can see this along the bottom of the OddsChecker market (see screenshot above) or in the OddsMonkey forum thread (see below).