Refund Daily Offers
Bookmakers will often run offers (usually for certain football matches) whereby a certain event needs to occur for a free bet to be triggered.
We use the exact same principle as we do when completing the welcome offers - place a risk free bet on the match to trigger the potential free bet. The only difference being that these offers aren't risk free, as it could be the case that the event within the match does not occur, so it is important to detect when these refund offers are profitable or not.
So, Boylesports are offering a free bet of your stake (up to £25), refunded if your bet loses AND the crossbar is hit at any point during the game. They run it for every televised Premier League game. Things you need to bear in mind:
- Chances of the crossbar being hit in any game = around 1 in 3
- £25 Free Bet value = around £18
- The trigger bet qualifying loss
So for this to be profitable we need the expected cash from the free bet to be more than we lose in qualifying losses.
If we're expected to win £18 from the free bet 1 in 3 games, the expected value of this offer is £6. So as long as the qualifying loss is less than £6 we should expect to make money from these offers.
Being on televised premier league matches we can expect a qualifying loss of around £1, so it's definitely a profitable offer to do!