Lay All At The Start Accumulators
This Guide Explains How To Profit Using The Lay At Start Accumulators Method
In this method, we place a lay bet on each of the teams in our accumulator.
So for a £25 accumulator with 5 teams, we are placing 5 x £25 lay bets, one on each team.
August 2018 update:
This is because this football season, the minimum lay odds are usually 1.33 or higher, meaning the Lay All At Start can no longer reduce your risk compared to No Lay, but will take longer to do!
Expected Profit Per Acca
Your expected profit is the same as Method 1 No Lay, except for now we deduct the commission from the lay bets.
You are placing 5 x £25 lay bets and on average just over 1 x £25 lay bet will win (each £25 lay bet that wins has a 50p commission on Smarkets or £1.25 on Betfair). Therefore, on average you will pay around 80p commission per acca. This gives us the below expected profit:
Average back odds of 1.2 = £5.40 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.3 = £4.50 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.4 = £3.00 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.5 = £1.30 expected profit
If you haven't yet, read the Football Accumulator Refund Explained guide to see why lower back odds means more profit!
For the bookmaker outcomes, there are simply 3 outcomes for each acca, using a £25 acca as an example:
All teams win = You win your acca stake x combined odds (£35 to £165 profit*)
1 team loses = You lose your acca stake but are refunded as a free bet (-£25 + £25 free bet = -£5)
2+ team loses = You lose your acca stake without any refund (-£25)
* If all teams win, then you will win £35 (if your teams average 1.2 odds) up to £165 (if your teams average 1.5 odds). The issue with higher odds is that whilst you win more when your acca does win, you are much less likely to win.
For the exchange outcomes, we are placing 5 x £25 lay bets.
For the purposes of explaining this, let's use an example of a £25 acca where all 5 teams have 1.3 back odds and 1.32 lay odds. This means each £25 lay bet has a £8 liability.
Therefore, these are our total payouts based on how many teams win.
All teams win = You lose 5 x £8 liabilities (-£40)
1 team lose = You lose 4 x £8 liabilities but win 1 x £25 lay stake (-£7.50)
2 team lose = You lose 3 x £8 liabilities but win 2 x £25 lay stake (£25 profit)
3 team lose = You lose 2 x £8 liabilities but win 3 x £25 lay stake (£57.5 profit)
4 team lose = You lose 1 x £8 liabilities but win 4 x £25 lay stake (£90 profit)
5 team lose = You win 5 x £25 lay stake (£122.5 profit)
As you can see from the above, for every additional team that loses (or draw), rather than paying out a £8 liability, instead we win £24.50. This means the more of our teams that lose (or draw), the more we make in the exchange!
Total Outcomes and Likelihood
Our total outcome is simple summing the bookmaker and the exchange outcomes together. You can also see in brackets the likelihood of each outcome happening.
|All win (24%)||£68||-£40||£28|
|1 lose (40%)||-£5||-£7.50||-£12.50|
|2 lose (26%)||-£25||£25||£0|
|3 lose (9%)||-£25||£57.50||£32.50|
|4 lose (1%)||-£25||£90||£65|
|All lose (0.1%)||-£25||£122.50||£97.50|
As you can see from the above, we will only lose money if 1 team loses which will happen around 40% of the time.
Overall, by taking the profit/loss of each outcome and multiplying them by the % likelihood, we reach our expected profit figure. This will be up to £5.40 expected profit per £25 acca, as explained above.
FAQ: How Can I Minimise The Potential Loss If One Team Loses?
You will only lose money using Method 2 Lay All At Start when 1 team loses. However, by choosing low odds and close matches, you can keep your potential loss very low by choosing low odds.
Whilst in the example above we used average back odds of 1.3, if you can choose teams closer to 1.2, it will reduce your potential loss:
Average back odds of 1.2 = -£2
Average back odds of 1.3 = --£12
Average back odds of 1.4 = -£23
Average back odds of 1.5 = -£38
Based on the above, you should always be looking for average back odds of 1.4 or lower, otherwise your could lose almost as much as using the No Lay Method.
Each £25 lay bet will require a liability between £5 to £12 depending on the odds. Below is a table showing the liability based on the average back odds:
Average back odds of 1.2 = £28 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.3 = £41 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.4 = £54 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.5 = £67 liability needed
Assuming I choose average back odds of around 1.3 or lower, I would need up to £66 per £25 acca, being £25 to place the bookmaker bet and up to £41 liability on the exchange.
Depending on how many accumulators you are looking to do each weekend/midweek, will determine the total amount of funds you'll need across your bookmakers and your exchange(s). You may lose up to £100 to £150 if you keep getting unlucky and your accumulator teams keep having only 1 team losing, so just be aware this could happen!
If it helps, here is a summary table, putting the potential loss, expected profit and liability needed, side by side in a table:
|Average Back Odds||Potential Loss
1 team loses
|Liability Needed||Expected Profit|
The above table just helps to show the importance of focusing on low odds teams. You have a lower potential loss, lower liability and higher expected profit!
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