acca refundsLay Sequential Lock In Accumulators

This Guide Explains How To Profit Using The Lay Sequential Lock In Method
Method Summary

This method is very similar to practice to Method 3 Lay Sequential in that we are laying each match in our accumulator, one by one.

However, with some clever maths in the OddsMonkey Acca Matcher, we are spreading the value of the free bet across every match. This means we guarantee a £1.10 to £5.20 profit on every accumulator!

The reason for the range in profit is because your profit depends on choosing teams with low odds and close back & lay odds.

We guarantee a profit every time by making two changes to Method 3 Lay Sequential:

Firstly, before a team has lost, we 'underlay' each match, this means if the teams win, we make a profit.

Secondly, once a team has lost, rather than hoping the remaining teams win so we get a free bet as per Method 3, instead we 'underlay' now using the value of the free bet, so that if a team loses then we still make a guaranteed profit.

The maths is a bit tricky but don't worry, the OddsMonkey Acca Matcher does all the calculations for you, so all you need to do is follow it!

The upside is:

  • Risk Free - You will be guaranteeing a profit every time!
  • As Profitable - As profitable as Method 3 Lay Sequential, but without any risk.

The downsides are:

  • Time Consuming - You need to place a lay bet before each kick off until two teams have lost.
  • Less Profitable - Less profit than Method 1 No Lay (by £1 per £25 acca) and Method 2 (by 20p per £25 acca)
Expected Profit Per Acca

Your expected profit is the same as Method 1 No Lay, except for now we deduct the commission from the lay bets.

From reviewing the Acca Matcher and doing some number crunching, on average you will pay around £1 commission per acca. This gives us the below expected profit:

Average back odds of 1.2 = £5.20 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.3£4.30 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.4 = £2.80 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.5 = £1.10 expected profit

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Your Outcomes

We are placing a lay bet before each game until 2 teams lose.

The OddsMonkey Acca Matcher will show you the lay stake for every match, depending on whether the previous teams have won or lost, but if you're interested to know exactly how it works, read on!

The below outcomes are using an example of a £25 acca with 5 teams between 1.22 to 1.3 back odds.

All 5 Teams Win

lay sequential lock in accumulators

If all teams win, because we have consistently 'underlayed' against the accumulated winnings then we have made £5.11 profit  because:

Bookmaker = Our accumulator bet has won £52.25
Exchange = Our 5 lay bets have lost with a total liability of £47.14
Net Profit = £5.11

4 Teams Win and 1 Team Lose

lock in 1 loses

Once 1 team loses, then we can no longer win the £52.25 profit from our bookmaker bet.

Instead, we can only win the £50 free bet (worth £40 cash) and if we lose one more game then we win nothing. Therefore, our lay stake decreases a lot as we are now betting against a much smaller potential win.

If only 1 team loses, then we make a profit of £5.02 because:

Bookmaker = Our accumulator bet has lost £25 but we have received a £25 free bet worth £20 cash profit.
Exchange = 4 lay bets have lost (3 of which were small) for a total £17.28 liability but we won a £28.74 lay bet (£27.30 after commission) has won for a net profit of £10.02
Net Profit = £5.02

Note it doesn't matter which of the 5 teams lose, you will always make around £5 profit.

2 Team Lose

Once 2 teams have lost, then we stop laying the remainder of the accumulator and we have made £5.02 profit, because:

Bookmaker = Our accumulator bet has lost £25
Exchange = 1 lay bet has lost for a total £7.28 liability but we won lay bets for a total £39.26 lay bet (£37.30 after commission) has won for a net profit of £30.02
Net Profit = £5.02

Liability Needed

You will need sufficient balance in your Exchange to cover the amount of your accumulator winnings, less up to £5 (given this how we make profit if all the teams win).

For example, if your £25 accumulator has average back odds of 1.3, which is 3.71 combined odds, then you stand to win £68. The calculation for this is £25 * (3.71 - 1) on the bookmaker. Therefore, in your exchange you will need £64 (as the profit with average back odds of 1.3 is £4).

Here is the liability required based on the average back odds:

Average back odds of 1.2 = £32 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.3 = £64 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.4 = £106 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.5 = £162 liability needed

Pros and Cons

Pros

  • Risk Free - You will be guaranteeing a profit every time!
  • As Profitable - As profitable as Method 3 Lay Sequential, but without any risk.

Cons

  • Time Consuming - You need to place a lay bet before each kick off until two teams have lost.
  • Less Profitable - Less profit than Method 1 No Lay (by £1 per £25 acca) and Method 2 (by 20p per £25 acca)
  • Gubbing - A few bookmakers have noticed matched betters are placing accas where every game kicks off at a different time, so you may be more likely to be gubbed.
Ready To Profit?

To start profiting from football accumulators using the Lay Sequential Lock In method, check out the OddsMonkey Acca Matcher article.

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