Lay Sequential Accumulators
This Guide Explains How To Profit Using The Lay Sequential Method
In this method, we are laying each match in our accumulator, one by one, and hoping that just one team loses so we receive the free bet!
It is important to note that each team in our accumulator must start after the previous team has finished.
For example, our 5 teams may have the following kick off times:
For a £25 accumulator bet, you will lose on £3.50 as a trigger bet loss but you will have a 40% chance of receiving a £25 free bet.
The upside is:
- Less Risky as you will only be losing up to £3.50 on average
The downsides are:
- Time Consuming - You need to place a lay bet before each game kicks off if your teams keep winning.
- Less Profitable - You have less low odds teams to choose from, as you can't pick two teams that are playing concurrently.
If you are interested in this Method due to the lower risk, I would recommend Method 3 Lay Sequential Lock In, which is simply a better version of Method 2, Lay Sequential!
Expected Profit Per Acca
Your expected profit is the same as Method 1 No Lay, except for now we deduct the commission from the lay bets.
You are placing an increasingly large lay bet with each bet. However, some of the time you may only need to place 1 x £25 lay bet (when the first match loses). From reviewing the Acca Matcher and doing some number crunching, on average you will pay around £1 commission per acca. This gives us the below expected profit:
Average back odds of 1.2 = £5.20 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.3 = £4.30 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.4 = £2.80 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.5 = £1.10 expected profit
If you haven't yet, read the Football Accumulator Refund Explained guide to see why lower back odds means more profit!
Note this assumes a 10% difference between your back & lay odds e.g. 1.3 back odds and 1.33 lay odds, which gives a £3.50 trigger bet loss. If your acca is showing a lower/higher trigger bet loss, then you will make more/less profit!
We are placing a lay bet before each game if our teams keep winning.
As soon as 1 team loses, we do not continue to lay the remaining teams and just hope they win, meaning we receive the free bet. We do incur a small trigger bet loss, due to the difference between the back and lay odds.
|All win||- Trigger Bet Loss|
|1 lose||£25 Free Bet - Trigger Bet Loss|
|2+ lose||- Trigger Bet Loss|
How Much To Lay On Each Team?
Our lay stake increases with each team. This is because of the nature of an accumulator bet, which rolls the winnings on to the next game.
For example, let's say our £25 accumulator have bookmaker odds of 1.2, 1.3, 1.25, 1.3 and 1.35.
If our first team wins, then the back stake for second match has increased to £25 x 1.2 = £30. Therefore, in effect our back stake for our second match is £30, not £25.
This means that should our first 4 teams win, the back stake for the fifth match has increased to £25 x 1.2 x 1.3 x 1.25 x 1.3 = £63 back stake.
How Is Your Trigger Bet Loss Calculated?
Simple! It is exactly the same was as any trigger bet. Here we are using the 'accumulated' odds, so in the above screenshot these are:
Back odds 2.91 (1.22 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.2)
Lay odds 3.25 (1.25 x 1.28 x 1.27 x 1.28 x 1.25)
Entering this into the calculator you can see that, with a back stake of £25, you will make a trigger bet loss of £3.41.
As with all trigger bets, the closer your back & lay odds, the smaller your trigger bet loss.
Chance Of Each Outcome Happening?
You have a 40% chance of one team losing (and receiving a free bet), this gradually declines as your average back odds increase, as shown in the graph.
Chances Of A Free Bet With Average Back Odds Graph
You will need sufficient balance in your Exchange to cover the amount of your accumulator winnings.
For example, if your £25 accumulator has average back odds of 1.3, which is 3.71 combined odds, then you stand to £68. The calculation for this is £25 * (3.71 - 1) on the bookmaker.
Here is the liability required based on the average back odds:
Average back odds of 1.2 = £37 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.3 = £68 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.4 = £109 liability needed
Average back odds of 1.5 = £165 liability needed
Pros and Cons
- Low Risk - Your maximum loss is £3.50, much lower than Method 1 No Lay or Method 2 Lay All At Start
- Time Consuming - You need to be at your laptop (and remember!) to place your lay bet before each match starts.
- Less Profitable - It is slightly less profitable than Method 1 or Method 2 due to the higher commission.
- Gubbing - A few bookmakers have noticed matched betters are placing accas where every game kicks off at a different time, so you may be more likely to be gubbed.
Overall, if you wish to keep your risk to a minimum, I would instead use Method 4 Lay Sequential Lock In, which is very similar but guaranteed a profit with no risk!
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