Accumulator Refund Offers
This Guide Explains How You Can Profit From Football Accumulators
Football accumulator refunds are a way to profit from matched betting and this will continue throughout the 2019/20 football season!
In this article, you will learn exactly what they are, how much profit you can make, when to do them, plus an explanation of the four methods you can use to lay the accumulators.
Once you have read this article, I recommend then reading one of the four guides for the lay method you'd like to use (as explained below), plus watching the video in the OddsMonkey Acca Matcher article, which makes profiting from these offers much easier.
What is a Football Accumulator ('Acca')?
A football accumulator is one bet, where the bet contains the outcome of at least 4 matches.
For example, you place a £25 bet this weekend that Man City, Chelsea, Man United, Barcelona and Real Madrid will all beat their opponents in the Premier League / La Liga.
To win your accumulator bet, you must have correctly predicted the outcome of every match in your accumulator. This means the odds can become much higher, in effect you have 'accumulated' the odds across multiple matches.
For example, the odds for the above 5 teams are 1.28, 1.28, 1.5, 1.44 and 1.2, the accumulated odds are 4.25, being 1.28 x 1.28 x 1.5 x 1.44 x 1.2.
Football accumulators, or 'accas' as they are known, are now very popular across the UK. This is because you have the potential to win a large amount of money from a relatively small bet stake.
What is a Football Accumulator Refund Offer?
To encourage you to place your football accumulators with them, many bookmakers offer your bet stake refunded as a free bet refund, if you lose your bet by only one match.
For example, if you bet £25 on the above 5 teams all to win this weekend and 4 of those teams won, with the other team drawing or losing, then the bookmaker will refund your £25 stake as a £25 free bet.
Example Bookmaker Offers
Over 10 bookmakers provide Football Accumulator Refund offers, they often call the offer 'Acca Insurance'.
Each offer varies in maximum refund amount (either £10, £20 or £25), minimum number of teams in the accumulator (5 or 6) and minimum odds per team.
OddsMonkey provide an updated list of every bookmaker and their key terms, you can also see a full best bookmaker offers guide here on the Team Profit website.
How Much Profit Can I Make?
£12 per hour for up to 4 hours per week.
This equals £50 per week or £200 per month.
Each accumulator refund has a value of between £1 to £3 profit, as explained later in this guide. You can expect to complete up to 6 refunds per hour, resulting in an hourly rate of approximately £12 per hour (based on a £2 average profit per acca).
How Much Do I Need To Start?
A £10 accumulator stake requires up to £40 liability
Many matched betters start with £5 or £10 accumulators to become familiar with completing accumulator offers, before moving up to £25 (or even £50) accumulator offers.
In terms of how much you need in your Exchange to lay a £10 accumulator, it depends on which of the four lay methods you use:
Lay Sequentially Lock In - This is the most popular method for matched betters looking to lock in a profit. You need up to 4x your accumulator stake as a liability i.e. a £10 accumulator stake requires up to £40 liability.
No Lay Method - You do not need any exchange balance for this method, however it is risky!
Certainly do not be put off by accumulator offers by thinking they require a very large liability, they really don't!
When Should I Complete These Offers?
Thursday to Saturday Morning and Monday to Tuesday
There needs to be a significant number of major league fixtures available to complete accumulator refund offers. This typically means, for each bookmaker, you can set up:
1 weekend acca per bookmaker - I recommend setting these up on a Thursday, Friday or Saturday morning.
1 midweek acca per bookmaker - I recommend setting these up on a Monday or Tuesday.
If you are just starting accas, then it may take up to 20 minutes to complete the acca, but once you are familiar with them you can do 1 acca every 10 minutes. Typically, you could spend 1 to 2 hours setting up accumulators depending on how many bookmaker offers you are taking up.
Your Profit Explained
How Are Accumulator Refunds Profitable?
Football accumulator refunds are profitable by picking teams that are strong favourites to win (1.1 to 1.5 odds). This means we can receive a free bet on approximately 40% of our accumulators.
So every £25 accumulator placed has an expected value of a £10 free bet, being £25 * 40%.
This equals approximately £8 profit per accumulator, based on converting 80% of our free bet to cash profit by choosing high odds.
However, in practice we will make a £2 to £3 profit per £25 accumulator due to two important factors as explained below!
1. Choosing Low Odds Teams
By choosing low odds teams, we ensure we have a reasonable (40%) chance of receiving a free bet. This means choosing football teams with odds between 1.2 and 1.5.
Examples of teams that often have low odds and so will often be part of your accumulator are Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Ajax, Bayern Munich.
Importantly though, the lower the odds of your teams, the more profit you will make. This is because you have more chance of the accumulator winning (and so you win your accumulator stake multipled by the combined odds) and less chance of your accumulator losing (and so you lose your accumulator stake).
The below graph shows the relationship between the average back odds of your teams and the expected profit you will make for £25 accumulator:
As you can see from the graph above, for a £25 accumulator:
Average back odds of 1.4 = £3.80 expected profit
Average back odds of 1.5 = £2.10 expected profit
So it's clearly important to choose low odds teams!
The above expected profit figures assume that the lay odds are 10% higher than the back odds e.g. back odds 1.2 and lay odds 1.22.
Let's now cover the importance of close back & lay odds.
2. Close Back & Lay Odds
As you will be well aware, the bookmaker's back odds are almost always lower than the exchange's lay odds.
This is because the lay odds are the 'true' odds of an outcome whereas the bookmaker gives you reduced odds (and so a reduced payout) so they can make a profit.
Therefore, the closer the back & lay odds, the more profit your accumulator will make, because the bookmaker is in effect not reducing their odds by as much.
The below graph shows the relationship between the closeness of the back & lay odds of your teams and the expected profit you will make:
What this graph shows, is that for a £25 accumulator with average back odds of 1.2 (the far left of the graph):
1.42 lay odds (5% difference) = £5.40 expected profit
1.44 lay odds (10% difference) = £3.80 expected profit
1.46 lay odds (15% difference) = £2.10 expected profit
So when the average back odds are 1.4, you can get a range of £2.10 to £5.40 expected profit, based on the closeness of the back & lay odds.
This is why it is a better to place your weekend accas closer to kick off (e.g. on a Friday evening or Saturday morning) as the odds will be at their closest.
Laying Your Accumulators
So far you have learnt that accumulator refund offers are profitable, in particular by choosing low odds with close back & lay odds.
However, if we didn't lay an accumulator, then if 2 or more teams lose then we would lose our £25 stake and not receive a £25 free bet.
So by laying accumulators, we can reduce or even completely eliminate this risk. The OddsMonkey Acca Finder (our guide) is again very helpful for you in laying your accumulators.
So let's read on and learn how you can lay an accumulator!
It may seem like there is quite a lot to consider - finding teams with low odds and close back & lay odds, working out the corresponding expected profit. This used to be a quite a slog, you had to find the teams yourself by looking everywhere on the bookmaker website, then enter everything into a manual spreadsheet. The OddsMonkey Acca Finder changed all of this and very much for the benefit for us matched betters!
The OddsMonkey Acca Finder automatically:
- Low & Close Odds - Lists the teams with low odds and close odds
- Pre-Selection - Pre-selects 5 or 6 teams for your acca
- Expected Profit - Shows the expected profit for your acca
- Acca Tracking - Save acca feature allowing you to track your acca
As well as much more! You can read more read our guide on Using the OddsMonkey Acca Finder.
Note if you are looking to do the No Lay method, then instead you should use the Acca Builder (formerly called the Acca Matcher), another OddsMonkey tool provided to you.
Placing an accumulator bet with the bookmaker is easy, simply select the teams and place your bet.
However, for your lay bet, it is not possible to place 1 lay bet to lay your accumulator, as Exchanges do not offer to lay accumulators given the thousands of different accumulator combinations.
There are four methods to lay an accumulator bet:
|No Lay||Lay All At Start||Lay Sequentially||Lay Sequentially
£2 to £12
|Expected Profit||£3 to £4||£2 to £3||£2 to £3||£2 to £3|
|Liability Required||None||Up to £54||Up to £109||Up to £106|
Method 1: No Lay
You simply do not lay the accumulator!
This method is therefore not risk free and has a significant element of risk. This is because if 2 or more teams do not win, then you lose the accumulator bet and also do not receive a free bet refund.
This method is should only be by experienced matched betters with £1,000+ profits saved up and a high risk tolerance, so they can handle the swings of not laying accas.
Method 2: Lay All At Start
You place a lay bet on each of the 5 teams in your accumulator.
So for a £25 accumulator with 5 teams, you are placing 5 x £25 lay bets, one on each team, at the same time as placing the £25 accumulator bet on the bookmaker.
I no longer recommend this method. This is because it doesn't reduce your risk by much compared to the No Lay method but takes more time!
Method 3: Lay Sequentially
You lay each match in your accumulator, one by one, incurring a small trigger bet loss. You then hope that just one team loses so we receive the free bet!
It is important to note that each team in your accumulator must start after the previous team has finished. This means you need to head to the exchange before each game kicks off to place our next lay bet, though you stop laying once 1 team has lost (as you now hope the remaining teams win to trigger the free bet).
For example, your 5 teams may have the following kick off times:
Saturday 15:00, Saturday 17:30, Sunday 16:00, Monday 20:00, Tuesday 20:00
This method is for those with low risk tolerance and able to place lay bets on multiple days before each game kicks off. If you are happy to do this, I would recommend Method 4 Lay Sequentially Lock In instead, as it guarantees a profit every acca!
There is no major advantage in choosing Lay Sequentially rather than Lay Sequentially Lock In, the only benefit that it is a little quicker to do than Lock In, as you stop placing lay bets once 1 team loses, whereas with the Lock In method you need to keep placing lay bets until 2 teams have lost.
Method 4: Lay Sequentially Lock In
This method is very similar in practice to Method 3 Lay Sequentially in that you are laying each match in our accumulator, one by one.
However, with some clever maths in the OddsMonkey Acca Matcher (that is automatically calculated for you), you are spreading the value of the free bet across every match. Therefore, regardless of whether each team wins, you are guaranteeing a profit risk free on every accumulator!
This method is for those looking to make a guaranteed profit from every accumulator. See below for why you may wish to choose Method 1 or Method 2 rather than Lay Sequential Lock In.
Which Method Should You Use?
Lay Sequentially Lock In is a popular method with matched betters and for good reason, you guarantee a profit every time!
However, I wanted to highlight 3 reasons why you may prefer Method 1 No Lay:
With Lay Sequentially, you need to place a lay bet before each game kicks off, which is quite time consuming and needs good organisation to ensure you don't forget to lay a match!
Whereas with No Lay, you only need to set aside time once (e.g. a Saturday morning) and then just wait for the results to come in to see the outcome.
With Lay Sequentially, you can only use 1 team that kicks off at a particular time. This means on a Saturday afternoon, the busiest time for football, you can only use one game for your accumulator.
Whereas there may be multiple games with low odds on a Saturday afternoon and you can use all of these with No Lay. This means both doing 1 accumulator may be more profitable, plus you can complete more accas given there are more teams to choose from.
A few bookmakers have noticed matched betters are placing accas where every game kicks off at a different time, so you may be more likely to be gubbed compared to No Lay.
However, No Lay involves a lot of risk given the swings in the results, so only use this method if you have a £1,000 bankroll and are happy with the swings.
It's now time to read through the full guide for the method that interests you the most, No Lay, Lay All At Start, Lay Sequentially or Lay Sequentially Lock In!
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