Early Payout Calculator Guide
If you are new to 2Up, definitely read the 2Up guide before learning to use this calculator!
2UP is one of the most lucrative reload offers to grace the matched betting world. Once your team has gained a 2 goal advantage, Bet365 and Paddy Power pay you out as a winner. For maximum profit ideally we want our team to then either draw or lose, resulting in a winning back bet as well as the lay bet for us.
The full turnaround, however, does not happen very often. Last season in the Premier League, this only had a 1.5% chance of happening for a team in a game.
Thankfully, we can use OddsMonkey's Early Payout Calculator to lock in profit as soon as we get paid out by the bookmaker.
Early Payout Calculator
The Early Payout Calculator can be found in Tools -> Calculators -> Early Payout Calculator.
It is also crucial that we use the Early Payout Calculator when we have other bets on the same market as trading out will cancel out all of our lay bets.
If you’re not yet with Oddsmonkey, you can grab a £1 trial for 1 week here.
How To Use The Calculator
Upon opening the calculator we are presented with the usual back/lay calculator which we need to fill in by entering our BACK and LAY odds as well as the back stake and commission rate when we placed the initial bet.
Example - I am using Manchester City at odds of 2.5/2.5
The fun starts when we change the ‘Has the bookmaker paid out early’ option to YES.
It is always advisable to wait until the goal has been confirmed and the bookie has paid out before trading out.
We now enter the the current exchange BACK odds of our team into the early payout calculator.
This will immediately tell us the back stake to play on our team and our profit we lock in by placing this exchange back bet!
Example - If Man City have gone 2 goals up and the bookmaker has paid out into your £150 winnings, then select YES as shown below. If the current BACK odds on Man City were 1.2, then enter 1.2.
The calculator tells us that we should place a £208.33 back stake. This reduces our liability on Man City from £150 to £108.33, leaving us with a guaranteed £41.67 profit (being the £150 Bet365 winnings less the £108.33 liability, as shown in the profit breakdown at the bottom).
If Current Back Odds Are Very Low
If your team goes 2 goals up and there is only say 10 minutes left in the game, then your team will almost certainly win the game by full time. This means the back odds may only be say 1.02. This means there is very little profit to be made in cashing out.
In this situation, I would recommend hoping that the opponents get 1 goal back and then cash out if the back odds are reasonable.
Note from Chris, as mentioned in the 2Up guide, I recommend setting yourself a rule e.g. "I will always cash out fully if the back odds are at least 1.1". There is nothing worse than being not sure whether to cash out or let it ride and then making a gut feeling decision. As when it goes against you it sucks, so it's safest just to set yourself a rule and stick to it I think!
Optional Reading - Partial Cash Out
Sometimes you may wish to only cash out part of your profits and let the rest ride to see if the opponents score again to make an even bigger profit.
Note from Chris, I recommend against doing this for most matched betters, you are simply risking the profits you can lock in with the click of a button!
The only situation I would recommend this approach is if you are an advanced matched better with a big bankroll and happy to take the bigger swings. This is because in the long run you will make a bit more profit by not taking up lay odds that are slightly worse than the 'true' odds.
Once Your Team Goes 2 Goals Up - Partial Cash Out
Trading out at 2-0 does not offer great value if the back odds are low, therefore we could consider leaving part of our bet to run and lock in some profit at 2-1 and the rest at 2-2 should we get lucky and the opponents come back into the game.
The easiest way to do that is to divide our stake into chunks and use the early payout calculator to lock in at each stage (or whatever we feel comfortable with).
Example - Let’s say we would like to lock in some profit at 2-0 to cover our QL and make a small profit. If we put £25, rather than £100, into the stake box (25% of our stake) we can immediately see that we need to BACK £52.08 to lock in £10.42 guaranteed profit.
The Opponents Score And It's Now 2-1 - Partial Cash Out
Should our team concede a goal their BACK odds will go up quite a lot, good news for us! So you could now cash out part or all of your remaining exchange bet.
Example - At this point we might want to take half of our lay out. Using example BACK odds of 1.6 and a stake £50 we could now lock in further profit - £46.88.
The Opponents Score Again And It's Now 2-2 - Remaining Cash Out
Should our team lose their advantage completely and allow the opposing team to equalise, it is always a good idea to lock in the rest of the profit. That way a late goal from our team will not squander the part of the bet we still have running.
Example - Using example back odds of 2.2 and our remaining stake of £25 (25%) we would fill the calculator in as follows. This will allow us to lock in the final £25 by backing £28.41 to cancel out the last remaining £25 of our lay bet.
We are done! How did we do? We would have locked in £10.42+£46.88+£34.00=£91.30 risk free profit from our original £100 stake. Kerching!
Note you could have cashed out £41.67 profit once the team went 2-0 up, so if the games stays at 2-0 or your team score more goals, then you have missed out on £31.25 profit risk free!
Things to remember:
- If this is your only lay bet on the game, and rather than using the calculator you use the 'trade out' / 'cash out' feature, you can sometimes get the error message about there not being enough liquidity in the market. If you place your back bet manually as instructed in this guide, your bet will be queued and matched as and when liquidity appears, just like a lay bet would. Alternatively, you can always use the Bet365 or a bookie of your choice, just remember to adjust the back odds.
- In play back bets make good mug bets, if you’re willing to accept smaller profit from the lower bookie back odds, you might want to consider backing at the bookie instead of the exchange (just enter the bookie's back odds and round up your stakes so it looks like a normal mug punter bet amount!).
- It is rare but possible for the bookie to pay out and then reverse the payment. Always allow enough time for the goal to be confirmed before trading out.
- A lot of goals happen late in the game. By trading out at 2-2 you are sacrificing a very small amount of profit should the game finish in a draw/opposing team winning in return for the peace of mind that your profit is locked in. There is nothing more gutting than a 90’+4 goal by the wrong team!
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