Early Payout Calculator Guide
If you are new to 2Up then please read our 2Up guide before learning how to use this calculator.
2UP is one of the most lucrative reload offers to grace the matched betting world. The only problem with it is that full turnarounds do not happy very often (infact, previous stats suggest around 1.5-2% of the time). For this reason, lots of Matched Bettors prefer to lock in a profit whenever their team have gone 2 goals up. It's extremely easy to do, and we can use OddsMonkey's Early Payout Calculator to do so.
Early Payout Calculator
It's good practice to always use the calculator when cashing out your 2up bets, rather than pressing the "cashout" option on the exchange. The reason for this is that if you have more than one lay bet on a certain outcome, then pressing cashout may mess up your other lay bets. Using this calculator and manually backing a bet will not do this.
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How To Use The Calculator
Upon opening the calculator you will be presented with the usual back/lay calculator which you need to fill in by entering your BACK and LAY odds, as well as the back stake and commission rate when you placed the initial bet.
Example - I am using Manchester City at odds of 2.5/2.5
The fun starts when we change the ‘Has the bookmaker paid out early’ option to YES.
It is always advisable to wait until the goal has been confirmed and the bookie has paid out before trading out.
Now, enter the the current exchange BACK odds of your team into the early payout calculator. (I recommend using the back odds on the Exchange because it's usually the highest - if the bookie were higher then that particular bookie would be an arb which isn't good!).
This will immediately tell you the back stake to bet on your team, and your profit locked in by placing the exchange back bet!
Example - If Man City have gone 2 goals up and the bookmaker has paid out into your £150 winnings, then select YES as shown below. If the current BACK odds on Man City were 1.2, then enter 1.2.
The calculator tells us that we should place a £208.33 back stake. This reduces our liability on Man City from £150 to £108.33, leaving us with a guaranteed £41.67 profit (being the £150 Bet365 winnings less the £108.33 liability, as shown in the profit breakdown at the bottom).
If Current Back Odds Are Very Low
If your team goes 2 goals up and there is only say 10 minutes left in the game, then there's very little chance the other team will bring it back. This means the back odds may be extremely low for your team - something like 1.02. There would be almost on point in cashing out this bet, as the profit will be tiny and could result you in taking a loss overall due to your original qualifying loss.
In this situation, I would recommend leaving the bet and hoping that the opponents get 1 goal back and then cash out if the back odds are reasonable.
Note from Chris, as mentioned in the 2Up guide, I recommend setting yourself a rule e.g. "I will always cash out fully if the back odds are at least 1.1". There is nothing worse than being not sure whether to cash out or let it ride and then making a gut feeling decision. As when it goes against you it sucks, so it's safest just to set yourself a rule and stick to it!
Optional Reading - Partial Cash Out
Sometimes you may wish to only cash out part of your profits and let the rest ride to see if the opponents score again to make an even bigger profit.
This is a bad strategy as you're essentially gambling profits that you already have, in hope that the other team brings it back. It is however favoured by some, hence the mention.
Once Your Team Goes 2 Goals Up - Partial Cash Out
Trading out at 2-0 does not offer great value if the back odds are low, therefore you could consider leaving part of your bet to run and lock in some profit at 2-1 and the rest at 2-2 should you get lucky and the opponents come back into the game.
The easiest way to do that is to divide your stake into chunks and use the early payout calculator to lock in at each stage (or whatever you feel comfortable with).
Example - Let’s say you would like to lock in some profit at 2-0 to cover your QL and make a small profit. If you put £25, rather than £100, into the stake box (25% of your stake) then you can immediately see that you need to BACK £52.08 to lock in £10.42 guaranteed profit.
The Opponents Score And It's Now 2-1 - Partial Cash Out
Should your team concede a goal their BACK odds will go up quite a lot, good news for us! So you could now cash out part or all of your remaining exchange bet.
Example - At this point you might want to take half of uour lay out. Using example BACK odds of 1.6 and a stake £50 you could now lock in further profit - £46.88.
The Opponents Score Again And It's Now 2-2 - Remaining Cash Out
Should your team lose their advantage completely and allow the opposing team to equalise, it is always a good idea to lock in the rest of the profit. That way a late goal from your team will not squander the part of the bet you still have running.
Example - Using example back odds of 2.2 and your remaining stake of £25 (25%) you would fill the calculator in as follows. This will allow you to lock in the final £25 by backing £28.41 to cancel out the last remaining £25 of your lay bet.
We are done! How did you do? You would have locked in £10.42+£46.88+£34.00=£91.30 risk free profit from your original £100 stake. Kerching!
Note you could have cashed out £41.67 profit once the team went 2-0 up, so if the game stays at 2-0 or your team score more goals, then you have missed out on £31.25 profit risk free!
Things to remember:
- If this is your only lay bet on the game, and rather than using the calculator you use the 'trade out' / 'cash out' feature, you can sometimes get the error message about there not being enough liquidity in the market. If you place your back bet manually as instructed in this guide, your bet will be queued and matched as and when liquidity appears, just like a lay bet would. Alternatively, you can always use the Bet365 or a bookie of your choice, just remember to adjust the back odds.
- In play back bets make good mug bets, if you’re willing to accept smaller profit from the lower bookie back odds, you might want to consider backing at the bookie instead of the exchange (just enter the bookie's back odds and round up your stakes so it looks like a normal mug punter bet amount!).
- It is rare but possible for the bookie to pay out and then reverse the payment. Always allow enough time for the goal to be confirmed before trading out.
- A lot of goals happen late in the game. By trading out at 2-2 you are sacrificing a very small amount of profit should the game finish in a draw/opposing team winning in return for the peace of mind that your profit is locked in. There is nothing more gutting than a 90’+4 goal by the wrong team!
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